Is It “Too Late” To Buy Bitcoin?
Is $27,000 BTC “cheap”?
Most people first hear about Bitcoin from its “NgU Technology” (Number Go Up Technology). Typically, Bitcoin’s never-ending parabolic price increases set off alarms for many intelligent people.
They see the price going up on something they don’t understand, and they get additional confirmation bias from other smart individuals (on CNBC and Bloomberg), who also don’t understand. This has led many smart people to write Bitcoin off as a “bubble” or “ponzi” without taking much time to look into it.
In my mind, this is actually perfectly rational behavior from their perspective. Wall Street and finance professionals aren’t computer scientists. They also don’t study the history of money. They are simply experts in bonds and equities (stocks).
With that said, a few Wall Street legends like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller have done serious research, and they now have a significant portion of their portfolio in Bitcoin.
The point I’m trying to make is that almost nobody understands Bitcoin at first, and what prevents some from wanting to learn more about it, is the idea that they are already “too late”.
Why buy Bitcoin at $27,000 when you could have bought it at $7,000 or even $70? Clearly you missed the boat. Or have you?
Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
A pseudonymous Twitter account, Croesus (@Croesus_BTC) has done phenomenal public research on the status of global Bitcoin adoption.
Looking at one the graphs he created, you can see where we are in the adoption cycle. His assumptions are simple. To calculate Bitcoin’s potential value, he only includes the world’s population with a net worth of over $10,000, which is 2.2B people.
Additionally, this is charting “Bitcoin Maximalists”, defined as “people that have 5%-50%+ of their wealth in Bitcoin”, which is roughly 250k people. This is the conservative number of individuals that have fully adopted Bitcoin, not including those that have partially adopted it (by throwing a few hundred dollars in Coinbase).
Bitcoin Adoption Curve by @Croesus_BTC
As you can see, Bitcoin has currently only penetrated 0.01% of the total addressable market. Clearly this indicates that you are FAR from being “too late”, and it helps explain why price targets of $500k, $1M, and $10M+ are not far fetched.
As you can see, Bitcoin is still tiny compared to what it will become.
Bitcoin vs Competing Assets by @Moon__Capital
You Can’t Be “Too Late” To Bitcoin
Even at 100% global adoption, you can’t be “too late”. It certainly helps to be “more early”, but Bitcoin will be used as a savings technology forever.
At full adoption, Bitcoin is still the world’s safest asset (perfectly scarce, no counterparty risk, and it has the least amount of future uncertainty). Its value will still grow over time, likely in line with global productivity growth.
The days of index funds and diversified portfolios are numbered. Bitcoin has and will continue to replace financial assets full of intermediaries, over leveraged zombie companies, gold, and bonds yielding less than 1%.
“Bitcoin is capable of collecting all the monetary energy in the world, storing it securely & perpetually without power loss, and channeling it efficiently to anyone or anything at the speed of light.” — Michael Saylor
TLDR: Bitcoin is the ultimate savings tool, and the world’s safest asset. It should be a significant portion of every portfolio, and as long as you can still trade USD for BTC, you’re still early.
Written by Joe Burnett (@Moon__Capital), Research Analyst at Mimesis Capital.
